Work gets under way on sub Council projections in Scotland

National Records of Scotland (NRS) have secured funding for a temporary ten month post, filled by Angela Adams on secondment from Clydeplan (Glasgow and the Clyde valley strategic development planning authority), to explore and produce sub-council area population and household projections.  Academic support will be provided by Professor Ludi Simpson. The project timescale is June 2015 to the end of March 2016. This is a one-off project.  Popgroup will be used for population projections and an internal NRS system for household projections.

The following criteria have been agreed for the projections:

  • The projections will be 2012-based
  • Produce the Principal projection only, variant projections won’t be prepared in the timescale available
  • The projection time period is likely to be 10 years
  • The proposed geography could be multi-member wards – or Councils own chosen geography – based on whole (not apportioned) 2001 data zones

The methodology will be developed and projections will be run for a sample authority to address any issues arising before progressing with the remaining projections. Fife Council have agreed to be the test authority.

NRS are consulting with council’s on a number of items, including their preferred geography for the sub-council area projections.  The geography that is being used for the Fife sample is multi-member wards.  It is necessary to establish the geography before work can progress, therefore, given the timescale constraints of the project if NRS do not hear back from council’s by Friday 10 July 2015 multi-member wards will be used as a councils default geography.

This is an exciting piece of work highlighting the value of collaboration and coordination in delivering useful local evidence for researchers in Scotland.

Background to the project is available at http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/consultation-groups/pams-6-may-15/paper9-pams-15-09-small-area-population-and-household-projections.pdf

For more information, including Frequently Asked Questions contact:

Angela Adams | Population and Migration Statistics | Demographic Statistics
National Records of Scotland | Ladywell House | Edinburgh EH12 7TF
Tel: 0131 3144 6230131 3144 623 | Angela.Adams@NRScotland.gov.uk | www.nrscotland.gov.uk

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