Recent research by Ipsos MORI reveals that the proportion of the electorate voting for the Conservatives at the next general election may increase by six percentage points if Boris Johnson were to assume leadership of the party. Across the UK as a whole, 39% of respondents stated that they would be likely to vote for the Conservatives if Johnson were at the helm, compared to 33% for David Cameron, 32% for Theresa May and 29% for George Osborne.

Moreover, the potential ‘Boris effect’ can be seen across all regions except Greater London: it is strongest in the Midlands and the North, where the potential increase in the Conservative share of the vote stands at eight and seven percentage points respectively. These figures are illustrated in the table below.

	Proportion of the UK electorate who would be likely to vote Conservative if the leader was…
	David Cameron	Boris Johnson	Theresa May	George Osborne
UK as a whole	33%	39%	32%	29%
Scotland	18%	23%	20%	20%
North (excluding Scotland)	25%	32%	23%	21%
Midlands	39%	47%	39%	33%
South	38%	41%	36%	33%
Greater London	37%	38%	35%	33%

While the general election results will also depend on wider factors than the personality of the party leaders, this indicates that a change in the Conservative leadership could have a significant effect in the regions in which its performance has traditionally been weakest. Moreover, further research by Ipsos MORI reveals a public belief that Johnson’s standing as an MP would have a positive impact on the electoral fortunes of the Conservative party: more than half (51%) of the electorate believe that this will be the case.

Further information regarding each of these reports can be found here and here.

Photo credit: Boris Johnson by Financial Times.